The Impact of Advanced Nowcasting Systems on Severe Weather Warning during the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project: 3 November 2000

Abstract

One of the principal aims of the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project was to assess the utility of advanced nowcasting systems to operational severe weather forecasters. This paper describes the application of the products of a variety of systems by forecasters during a severe weather event in Sydney, Australia, on 3 November 2000. During this day a severe storm developed to the south of the metropolitan area and tracked north producing large, damaging hail, heavy rainfall, and at least three tornadoes. A number of severe weather warnings were issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to a variety of customers throughout the day. This paper investigates how the novel nowcast products were used by the forecasters and the impact they had on the forecast and warning dissemination procedure. The products used are contrasted with those that were available or could have been made available at various stages of the storm development and the efficiency of use of these products is discussed. The severe weather forecasters expressed their satisfaction with the systems and believed that the additional information enhanced the quality and timeliness of the warnings issued during the event.