The Rapid Intensification and Subsequent Rapid Weakening of Hurricane Lili as Compared with Historical Hurricanes

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to compare the rapid intensification and rapid decay of Hurricane Lili with historical records to determine whether similar events have occurred in the past. Data for this study were compiled from the historical hurricane database that consists of all Atlantic basin tropical storms and hurricanes recorded from 1851 to 2001. Maximum 1-min sustained winds at 10 m were used. This study concludes that the rapid intensification/rapid decay processes that occurred as Hurricane Lili moved north across the Gulf of Mexico have been recorded only 11 other times since 1851. The intensification rate of 35 kt (1 kt = 0.5144 m s?1) in 24 h for Hurricane Lili ranked in the 11th percentile when compared with the 769 hurricanes in the historical database. In fact, 35.8% of all hurricanes that achieved an intensity of at least 100 kt intensified at a rate similar to Lili. The decay rate of 40 kt within 24 h after completion of rapid intensification ranks in the 1st percentile. This study also shows that all hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico that rapidly intensified after 15 September proceeded to decay shortly thereafter by an average of 28 kt within 24 h of completion of rapid intensification. On the other hand, three of five (60%) hurricanes that rapidly intensified over the Gulf of Mexico prior to 15 September continued to intensify, by an average of 9 kt.