Severe and Convective Weather: A Central Region Forecasting Challenge

Abstract

This paper is one of a series of papers dealing with operational weather forecasting within the Central Region of the National Weather Service. It focuses on the primary Central Region warm season weather producer, the thunderstorm. Some of the unique aspects of Central Region thunderstorms are highlighted. Techniques used to answer four questions routinely posed by forecasters are described. These questions are the following: 1) Will thunderstorms occur that will affect my area of forecast responsibility? 2) If thunderstorms develop, will these thunderstorms reach severe intensity? 3) If these thunderstorms reach severe intensity, what types of severe phenomena are likely with these storms? and 4) If thunderstorms occur, what storm type is most likely to be observed? A case from 14 May 1990 is used to illustrate the application of some of the techniques.