STORMTIPE: A Forecasting Experiment Using a Three-Dimensional Cloud Model

Abstract

An experiment using a three-dimensional cloud-scale numerical model in an operational forecasting environment was carried out in the spring of 1991. It involved meteorologists generating forecast environmental conditions associated with anticipated strong convection. Those conditions then were used to initialize the cloud model, which was run subsequently to forecast qualitative descriptions of storm type. Verification was done on both the sounding forecast and numerical model portions of the experiment. Of the 12 experiment days, the numerical model generated six good forecasts, two of which involved significant tornadic storms. More importantly, while demonstrating the potential for cloud-scale modeling in an operational environment, the experiment highlights some of the obstacles in the path of such an implementation.