| contributor author | Gray, William M. | |
| contributor author | Landsea, Christopher W. | |
| contributor author | Mielke, Paul W. | |
| contributor author | Berry, Kenneth J. | |
| date accessioned | 2017-06-09T14:46:44Z | |
| date available | 2017-06-09T14:46:44Z | |
| date copyright | 1992/09/01 | |
| date issued | 1992 | |
| identifier issn | 0882-8156 | |
| identifier other | ams-2657.pdf | |
| identifier uri | http://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4163478 | |
| description abstract | A surprisingly strong long-range predictive signal exists for Atlantic-basin seasonal tropical cyclone activity. This predictive skill is related to two measures of West African rainfall in the prior year and to the phase of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation of zonal winds at 30 mb and 50 mb, extrapolated ten months into the future. These predictors, both of which are available by 1 December, can be utilized to make skillful forecasts of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in the following June-November season. Using jackknife methods to provide independent testing of datasets, it is found that these parameters can be used to forecast nearly half of the season-to-season variability for seven indices of Atlantic seasonal tropical cyclone activity as early as late November of the previous year. | |
| publisher | American Meteorological Society | |
| title | Predicting Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity 6–11 Months in Advance | |
| type | Journal Paper | |
| journal volume | 7 | |
| journal issue | 3 | |
| journal title | Weather and Forecasting | |
| identifier doi | 10.1175/1520-0434(1992)007<0440:PASHAM>2.0.CO;2 | |
| journal fristpage | 440 | |
| journal lastpage | 455 | |
| tree | Weather and Forecasting:;1992:;volume( 007 ):;issue: 003 | |
| contenttype | Fulltext | |
