An Interactive Analysis and Forecast System for Tropical Cyclone Motion

Abstract

The design concept and operational trial of a fully interactive analysis and numerical forecast system for tropical-cyclone motion are described. The design concept emphasizes an interactive system in which forecasters can test various scenarios objectively, rather than having to subjectively decide between conflicting forecasts from standardized techniques. The system is designed for use on a personal computer, or workstation, located on the forecast bench. A choice of a Barnes or statistical interpolation scheme is provided to analyze raw or bogus observations at any atmospheric level or layer mean selected by the forecaster. The track forecast is then made by integration of a nondivergent barotropic model. An operational trial during the 1990 tropical-cyclone field experiments in the western north Pacific Ocean indicated that the system can be used very effectively in real time. A series of case-study examples is presented.