Great Historical Events That Were Significantly Affected by the Weather: Part 8, Germany's War on the Soviet Union, 1941–45. I. Long-range Weather Forecasts for 1941–42 and Climatological Studies

Abstract

A brief account is given of Baur's long-range weather forecast prepared in the autumn of 1941 for the 1941?42 winter in Eastern Europe. Baur's forecast called for a ?normal? or mild winter but the winter turned out to be one of the most severe winters on record. The cold, the icy winds and blizzards gravely hit the German armies and coincided with the first major Soviet counteroffensive of the war. A Soviet weather forecast for January 1942, also called for a mild month. A review of the climatological studies prepared for the war indicates that the occurrence of mud periods of considerable intensity in autumn was not considered. The autumn 1941 mud period immobilized most of the German armies for a month and caused the attempted final German assault on Moscow to take place in an early and severe winter. Hitter would not tolerate the mention of winter and still less the mention of the retreat of Napoleon's Grande Armée from Russia. The support given by Soviet meteorologists and hydrologists to the Red Army is sketched. For the 1941?42 winter the more-important short- to medium-range forecasts included a forecast for 7 November (anniversary of the October Revolution) at Moscow and a forecast for the start of Zhukov's counteroffensive in the Battle of Moscow in December 1941.