Remarks on the Potential for Long-Range Forecasting

Abstract

This paper, originally delivered as a lecture before the DOE-sponsored Workshop on Climate and Energy, offers some comments on the state-of-the-art of long-range weather forecasting based on the author's extensive decades of experience. An optimistic note is made on the potential ability to predict general climate anomalies from months to perhaps a year or so in advance, and implies that extreme conditions impacting energy industries may be easier to forecast than run-of-the-mill events. Highly detailed predictions beyond a week or two are not expected to be achievable, however.