Focus on Forecasting: A Synoptic Analysis of the 25–26 January 1978 Blizzard Cyclone in the Central United States

Abstract

Based on detailed surface analyses and National Meteorological Center (NMC) facsimile products, the evolution of the January 1978 midwestern blizzard-producing cyclone is described. The behavior of the storm is contrasted with the actions of typical winter cyclones. Forecasts by the Limited-Area Fine Mesh (LFM) numerical model are compared with observed conditions. An injection of polar air, resulting in the revitalization of the baroclinic zone, and concurrent strong upper-air flow are found to be important factors in the dramatic intensification of the low. The movement and deepening of the low, although not unprecedented, were found to deviate substantially from normal winter cyclone behavior. Although LFM forecasts underestimated the deepening of the low, the amount of predicted intensification was substantial.