From Short-Scale Atmospheric Variability to Global Climate Dynamics: Toward a Systematic Theory of Averaging

Abstract

Traditionally, climate is defined by the properties of the averages of the meteorological fields over an appropriate time interval. In this paper the properties of the time-averaged observables of a red noise atmosphere and of a simplified model of thermal convection are investigated both analytically and numerically and are compared to those of the original finescale variables. It is shown that averaging tends to reduce the domain of variability and the attractor dimension favors persistence of initial correlations and enhances predictability. The implications of these findings in the real-world atmosphere are briefly assessed.