Oil Spill Risk Simulation Model

Abstract

This paper presents a simulation numerical model that can generate an oil‐risk map for a given area. The map shows monthly and yearly probabilities of oil‐slick presence for each grid area. The probability computation procedure includes the oil‐slick movement at each time stage until it completes the given time interval. An example was presented to generate the Kuwait oil‐spill risk map by using the simulation model. The results of the oil‐spill risk map can be used to determine the relative sensitivities of coastal sections where oil‐slick occurrence are most probable. The decision maker can use this information for strategic planning in environmental protection and for selecting sites for seawater intakes, fish farms, and coastal recreation areas. The model simulates a spill's location, size, and associated movement based on statistical data. Horizontal wind vector components are simulated using a Markovian time series model based on local wind statistics. The simulation of the slick's movement includes the mechanisms of spreading and drift by wind and currents.