Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 2601-2620 of 3043
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A Comparison of Tornado Warning Lead Times with and without NEXRAD Doppler Radar
(American Meteorological Society, 1996)The installation of the network of NEXRAD (Next Generation Weather Radar) WSR-88D (Weather Surveillance Radar?1988 Doppler) radars has been an ongoing process for more than three years. An assessment is made on how these ... -
Predicting the Movement of Mesoscale Convective Complexes
(American Meteorological Society, 1996)A procedure for operationally predicting the movement of the mesobeta-scale convective elements responsible for the heavy rain in mesocale convective complexes is presented. The procedure is based on the well-known concepts ... -
The Contributions of Education and Experience to Forecast Skill
(American Meteorological Society, 1996)An analysis of nine semesters of temperature and precipitation forecasts at the State University of New York at Albany has been conducted with the goal of investigating the dependence of forecasting skill on education and ... -
The Finley Affair: A Signal Event in the History of Forecast Verification
(American Meteorological Society, 1996)In 1884 a paper by J.P. Finley appeared in the American Meteorological Journal describing the results of an experimental tornado forecasting program in the central and eastern United States. Finley's paper reported ... -
The Regional Analysis System for the Operational “Early” Eta Model: Original 80-km Configuration and Recent Changes
(American Meteorological Society, 1995)The analysis component of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational ?early? 80-km eta model, as implemented in July 1993, is described. This optimum interpolation (OI) analysis is fully multivariate ... -
Observing Forest Fires with the GOES-8, 3.9-µm Imaging Channel
(American Meteorological Society, 1995)Blackbody radiation at 3.9 µm increases rapidly with temperature. This fact suggests a potential application by fire weather meteorologists of the 3.9-µm imagery data provided by the new GOES-8 weather satellite. The ability ... -
Three-Dimensional Computations of Equivalent Potential Vorticity
(American Meteorological Society, 1995)Moore and Lambert showed how a quantity called equivalent potential vorticity (EPV) can provide quantitative values to assess conditional symmetric instability (CSI), also known as slantwise instability. Expanding the EPV ... -
An Unusual Summertime Downslope Wind Event in Fort Collins, Colorado, on 3 July 1993
(American Meteorological Society, 1995)An unseasonal, severe downslope windstorm along the eastern foothills of the Colorado Rocky Mountains is described. The storm, which occurred on 3 July 1993, produced wind guts in Fort Collins, Colorado, over 40 m s?1 and ... -
A World Record Rainfall Rate at Holt, Missouri: Was It Due to Cold Frontogenesis Aloft?
(American Meteorological Society, 1995)On 22 June 1947, Holt, Missouri, experienced a world-record rainstorm when 304.8 mm (?1 ft) of rain fell in 42 minutes. In this paper, evidence is presented that this extremely heavy rain may have been produced by cold ... -
Large-Scale Patterns Associated with Severe Summertime Thunderstorms over Central Arizona
(American Meteorological Society, 1995)Severe thunderstorms are relatively rare over Arizona and occur most frequently during the summer monsoon period, that is, July, August, and early September. Forecasting in Arizona during the summertime is quite difficult ... -
Fog Forecasting Objectively in the California Coastal Area Using LIBS
(American Meteorological Society, 1995)Weather forecasts and warnings are the most important services provided by the meteorological profession. As one aspect of these services, a year-round fog forecasting objective is selected for California coastal sites and ... -
The Importance of Understanding Mesoscale Model Parameterization Schemes for Weather Forecasting
(American Meteorological Society, 1995)A severe weather outbreak that occurred on 21?23 November 1992 in the southern United States is used to illustrate how an understanding of model parameterization schemes can help in the evaluation and utilization of mesoscale ... -
The Impact of Pacific Ocean Subsurface Data on Operational Prediction of Tropical Pacific SST at the NCEP
(American Meteorological Society, 1995)The value of assimilated subsurface oceanic data to statistical predictions of interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is shown. Subsurface ... -
Diurnal Corrections of Short-Term Surface Temperature Forecasts Using the Kalman Filter
(American Meteorological Society, 1995)Surface temperature forecasts from numerical weather prediction models are known to have systematic errors, partly due to poor resolution of the topography and deficiencies in the physical formulation. The Kalman filter ... -
The Coefficients of Correlation and Determination as Measures of performance in Forecast Verification
(American Meteorological Society, 1995)This paper is concerned with the use of the coefficient of correlation (CoC) and the coefficient of determination (CoD) as performance measures in forecast verification. Aspects of forecasting performance that are measured?and ... -
Generalized Additive Models versus Linear Regression in Generating Probabilistic MOS Forecasts of Aviation Weather Parameters
(American Meteorological Society, 1995)The skill of probabilistic Model Output Statistics forecasts generated from Generalized Additive Models (GAM) is compared to that of traditional multiple linear regression techniques. Unlike linear regression, where each ... -
Case Study of a Severe Mesoscale Convective System in Central Arizona
(American Meteorological Society, 1995)A mesoscale convective system (MCS) developed over central Arizona during the late evening and early morning of 23?24 July 1990 and produced widespread heavy rain, strong winds, and damage to buildings, vehicles, power ... -
An Analysis of NMC's Nested Grid Model Forecasts of Alberta Clippers
(American Meteorological Society, 1995)Forecasts of Alberta Clipper?type cyclones defined as cyclones that move southeastward from regions of western Canada into south-central Canada or the north-central United States before moving eastward to the coast of North ... -
A Probabilistic Forecast Contest and the Difficulty in Assessing Short-Range Forecast Uncertainty
(American Meteorological Society, 1995)Results are presented from a probability-based weather forecast contest. Rather than evaluating the absolute errors of nonprobabilistic temperature and precipitation forecasts, as is common in other contests, this contest ... -
Advances in the Detection and Analysis of Fog at Night Using GOES Multispectral Infrared Imagery
(American Meteorological Society, 1995)A technique is described for the detection of fog and low clouds at night using multispectral infrared (IR) imagery from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). The technique requires subtraction and ...