Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions

Now showing items 2561-2580 of 3043

    • The Prediction of the Performance of a Nested Barotropic Hurricane Track Forecast Model 

      Aberson, Sim D. (American Meteorological Society, 1997)
      Linear multiple regression and discriminant analyses provide estimates of the errors of track forecasts from a nested barotropic hurricane track forecast model (VICBAR), which was run in the North Atlantic Basin during the ...

    • Synoptic-Scale Features Common to Heavy Snowstorms in the Southeast United States 

      Mote, Thomas L.; Gamble, Douglas W.; Underwood, S. Jeffrey; Bentley, Mace L. (American Meteorological Society, 1997)
      Eighteen heavy snowstorms in the Southeast are examined to determine the synoptic-scale features common to these storms. Storm-relative composites in the temporal domain are created by assigning a ?zero hour? to each storm ...

    • Lightning during Two Central U.S. Winter Precipitation Events 

      Holle, Ronald L.; Watson, Andrew I. (American Meteorological Society, 1996)
      Network-detected cloud-to-ground lightning coincident with mainly frozen precipitation (freezing rain, sleet, snow) was studied over the central United States during two outbreaks of arctic air in January 1994. During the ...

    • A Physically Based, Nondimensional Parameter for Discriminating between Locations of Freezing Rain and Ice Pellets 

      Czys, Robert R.; Scott, Robert W.; Tang, K. C.; Przybylinski, Ronald W.; Sabones, Michael E. (American Meteorological Society, 1996)
      A nondimensional parameter is presented that can he used to help distinguish between conditions favorable for the occurrence of freezing rain and ice pellets. The parameter was derived from the well-established condition ...

    • Does Distance from the Forecast Site Affect Skill? 

      Roebber, Paul J.; Bosart, Lance F.; Forbes, Gregory S. (American Meteorological Society, 1996)
      An outstanding issue in the assessment of forecast skill (and value) is whether any advantage that can be obtained through regional knowledge not readily available to distant forecasters supersedes the leveling effect of ...

    • Flash Flood Forecasting: An Ingredients-Based Methodology 

      Doswell, Charles A.; Brooks, Harold E.; Maddox, Robert A. (American Meteorological Society, 1996)
      An approach to forecasting the potential for flash flood-producing storms is developed, using the notion of basic ingredients. Heavy precipitation is the result of sustained high rainfall rates. In turn, high rainfall rates ...

    • The Complex Relationship between Forecast Skill and Forecast Value: A Real-World Analysis 

      Roebber, Paul J.; Bosart, Lance F. (American Meteorological Society, 1996)
      For routine forecasts of temperature and precipitation, the relative skill advantage of human forecasters with respect to the numerical?statistical guidance is small (and diminishing). Since the relationship between forecast ...

    • A Regional Model Intercomparison Using a Case of Explosive Oceanic Cyclogenesis 

      Gyakum, John R.; Carrera, Marco; Zhang, Da-Lin; Miller, Steve; Caveen, James; Benoit, Robert; Black, Thomas; Buzzi, Andrea; Chouinard, Cliément; Fantini, M.; Folloni, C.; Katzfey, Jack J.; Kuo, Ying-Hwa; Lalaurette, François; Low-Nam, Simon; Mailhot, Jocelyn; Malguzzi, P.; McGregor, John L.; Nakamura, Masaomi; Tripoli, Greg; Wilson, Clive (American Meteorological Society, 1996)
      The authors evaluate the performance of current regional models in an intercomparison project for a case of explosive secondary marine cyclogenesis occurring during the Canadian Atlantic Storms Project and the Genesis of ...

    • Long-Lead Forecasts of Seasonal Precipitation in Africa Using CCA 

      Barnston, Anthony G.; Thiao, Wassila; Kumar, Vadlamani (American Meteorological Society, 1996)
      A potentially operational forecast system for 3-month total precipitation for three sections of the African continent has been developed at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center using the statistical method of canonical correlation ...

    • Storm-Relative Winds and Helicity in the Tornadic Thunderstorm Environment 

      Kerr, Brynn W.; Darkow, Grant L. (American Meteorological Society, 1996)
      Environmental flow relative to tornado-producing thunderstorms is examined through the use of the large tornado proximity sounding dataset compiled at the University of Missouri. It is believed that the 184 soundings gleaned ...

    • Pressure Gradients and Winds in Cook Strait 

      Reid, S. (American Meteorological Society, 1996)
      Wind channeling effects in a major strait have been studied using pressure data from seven meteorological stations in and around Cook Strait, New Zealand. The data were analyzed using pairs of stations to obtain pressure ...

    • Scatterometer Observations of Low-Level Wind Jets over New Zealand Coastal Waters 

      Laing, Andrew K.; Brenstrum, Erick (American Meteorological Society, 1996)
      Wind data from the European Remote-Sensing Satellite (ERS-1) scatterometer are used to depict wind fields in coastal waters around New Zealand. They include mesoscale detail not resolved by present operational models nor ...

    • Initiation of an Elevated Mesoscale Convective System Associated with Heavy Rainfall 

      Rochette, Scott M.; Moore, James T. (American Meteorological Society, 1996)
      A mesoscale convective system (MCS) developed during the morning hours of 6 June 1993 and moved across northern and central Missouri, resulting in a narrow swath of excessive rainfall (>150 mm). The MCS developed well north ...

    • The Vaison-La-Romaine Flash Flood: Mesoscale Analysis and Predictability Issues 

      Sénési, Stéphane; Bougeault, Philippe; Chèze, Jean-Luc; Cosentino, Philippe; Thepenier, Rose-May (American Meteorological Society, 1996)
      On the morning and early afternoon of 22 September 1992, a flash flood (220 mm of rain in 3 h) occurred in the city of Vaison-La-Romaine, located in southeastern France, causing numerous casualties and considerable property ...

    • Changes to the Operational “Early” Eta Analysis/Forecast System at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction 

      Rogers, Eric; Black, Thomas L.; Deaven, Dennis G.; DiMego, Geoffrey J.; Zhao, Qingyun; Baldwin, Michael; Junker, Norman W.; Lin, Ying (American Meteorological Society, 1996)
      This note describes changes that have been made to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational ?early? eta model. The changes are 1) an decrease in horizontal grid spacing from 80 to 48 km, 2) ...

    • Comparing PIREPs with NAWAU Turbulence and Icing Forecasts: Issues and Results 

      Kelsch, Mathew; Wharton, Linda (American Meteorological Society, 1996)
      Pilot reports of aircraft turbulence and icing were compared with forecasts of those phenomena from the National Aviation Weather Advisory Unit for a 45-day period in the winter of 1992. An observation-driven approach was ...

    • The Quantitative Use of PIREPs in Developing Aviation Weather Guidance Products 

      Schwartz, Barry (American Meteorological Society, 1996)
      An evaluation of the utility of pilot reports (PIREPs) of weather for aviation forecasting product development is presented. Although PIREPs were never intended for quantitative use, this limitation has not prevented ...

    • Relationships between Tornado Intensity and Various Wind and Thermodynamic Variables 

      Colquhoun, John R.; Riley, Philip A. (American Meteorological Society, 1996)
      Statistical relationships between tornado intensity and various stability and wind-related parameters are determined from a dataset of more than 200 tornado proximity soundings. Soundings were obtained from two sources: ...

    • Occurrence of Nonsurface Superadiabatic Lapse Rates within RAOB Data 

      Slonaker, Richard L.; Schwartz, Barry E.; Emery, William J. (American Meteorological Society, 1996)
      As part of creating an atmospheric database for research purposes, 73 497 radiosonde observation (RAOB) soundings from 1983 through 1987 were checked for nonsurface (at least 50 mb above the surface) superadiabatic lapse ...

    • Hurricane Andrew's Landfall in South Florida. Part II: Surface Wind Fields and Potential Real-Time Applications 

      Powell, Mark D.; Houston, Samuel H. (American Meteorological Society, 1996)
      All available wind data associated with Hurricane Andrew's passage were analysed for periods corresponding to landfall south of Miami and emergence from southwest Florida. At landfall in southeast Florida, maximum sustained ...