Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 2501-2520 of 3043
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Intercomparison of In-Flight Icing Algorithms. Part II: Statistical Verification Results
(American Meteorological Society, 1997)Recent research to improve forecasts of in-flight icing conditions has involved the development of algorithms to apply to the output of numerical weather prediction models. The abilities of several of these algorithms to ... -
Intercomparison of In-Flight Icing Algorithms. Part I: WISP94 Real-Time Icing Prediction and Evaluation Program
(American Meteorological Society, 1997)The purpose of the Federal Aviation Administration?s Icing Forecasting Improvement Program is to conduct research on icing conditions both in flight and on the ground. This paper describes a portion of the in-flight aircraft ... -
Frontal Structure in the Interior of an Intense Mature Ocean Cyclone
(American Meteorological Society, 1997)Low-level (300 m) aircraft observations, taken within an intense extratropical storm during Intensive Observation Period 2 of the Experiment on Rapidly Intensifying Cyclones over the Atlantic, are used to document the ... -
Global Data Assimilation and Forecast Experiments Using SSM/I Wind Speed Data Derived from a Neural Network Algorithm
(American Meteorological Society, 1997)A neural network algorithm used in this study to derive Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) wind speeds from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program satellite-observed brightness temperatures is briefly reviewed. ... -
A Single-Sample Estimate of Shrinkage in Meteorological Forecasting
(American Meteorological Society, 1997)An estimator of shrinkage based on information contained in a single sample is presented and the results of a simulation study are reported. The effects of sample size, amount, and severity of nonrepresentative data in the ... -
Understanding and Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change with the Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme (TIPS)
(American Meteorological Society, 1997)A multiple regression scheme with tropical cyclone intensity change as the dependent variable has been developed. The new scheme is titled the Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme (TIPS) and is similar to one used operationally ... -
Thermodynamic Adjustment Parameters in the Betts–Miller Scheme of Convection
(American Meteorological Society, 1997)The sensitivity of the prediction of a monsoon depression to the adjustment parameters in a Betts?Miller scheme of deep convection is examined and an optimum parameter set is identified for the monsoon depression. For this ... -
An Ensemble Forecasting Primer
(American Meteorological Society, 1997)An ensemble forecast is a collection (an ensemble) of forecasts that all verify at the same time. These forecasts are regarded as possible scenarios given the uncertainty associated with forecasting. With such an ensemble, ... -
Predicting Daily Maximum Temperatures Using Linear Regression and Eta Geopotential Thickness Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 1997)The relationship between forecast geopotential thickness and observed maximum temperature is investigated, and regression equations are calculated using numerical model thickness forecasts for Nashville. Model thickness ... -
Heavy Rainfall: Contrasting Two Concurrent Great Plains Thunderstorms
(American Meteorological Society, 1997)Measurement and forecasting of heavy rainfall requires interpretation of the small differences in the storm environment that distinguish a major flood-producing rainfall event from a relatively harmless storm system. This ... -
Verification of the ECMWF Wave Forecasting System against Buoy and Altimeter Data
(American Meteorological Society, 1997)The present status of ocean wave modeling at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is reviewed. Ocean waves are forecasted globally up to 10 days by means of the Wave Model (WAM), which is driven ... -
The Relationship between Aircraft Icing and Synoptic-Scale Weather Conditions
(American Meteorological Society, 1997)More than 2700 aircraft icing pilot reports are compared to analyses of operationally available data for 37 cases of winter weather. Statistical results regarding the number of occurrences of icing reports with airmass ... -
Reliability Diagrams for Multicategory Probabilistic Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 1997)The most common method of verifying multicategory probabilistic forecasts such as are used in probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting is through the use of the ranked probability score. This single number ... -
Verification and Sensitivity Experiments for the WISP94 MM5 Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 1997)A statistical verification of real-time forecasts from the Pennsylvania State University?National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) examines several model biases noted in numerical forecasts ... -
Implementation of the Cloud Prediction Scheme in the Eta Model at NCEP
(American Meteorological Society, 1997)An explicit cloud prediction scheme has been developed and incorporated into the Eta Model at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to improve the cloud and precipitation forecasts. In this scheme, the ... -
The Use of Bred Vectors in the NCEP Global 3D Variational Analysis System
(American Meteorological Society, 1997)The errors in the first-guess (forecast field) of an analysis system vary from day to day, but, as in all current operational data assimilation systems, forecast error covariances are assumed to be constant in time in the ... -
The 8 and 9 July 1993 Nebraska Derecho: An Observational Study and Comparison to the Climatology of Related Mesoscale Convective Systems
(American Meteorological Society, 1997)This study addresses a particularly damaging derecho that occurred on 8 and 9 July 1993. This progressive, warm season derecho organized in northeastern Colorado and swept through Nebraska and Kansas before dissipating in ... -
Stratus and Fog Products Using GOES-8–9 3.9-μm Data
(American Meteorological Society, 1997)Using data from the GOES-8?9 imager, this paper discusses the potential for consistent, around-the-clock image products that can trace the movement and evolution of low, stratiform clouds. In particular, the paper discusses ... -
The Second–Generation Global Forecast System at the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan
(American Meteorological Society, 1997)The global forecast system (GFS), which started its operation in 1988 at the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan, has been upgraded to incorporate better numerical methods and more complete parameterization schemes. The ... -
An El Niño–Southern Oscillation Climatology and Persistence (CLIPER) Forecasting Scheme
(American Meteorological Society, 1997)A statistical prediction method, which is based entirely on the optimal combination of persistence, month-to-month trend of initial conditions, and climatology, is developed for the El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ...