Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions

Now showing items 2281-2300 of 3043

    • MM5 Precipitation Verification over the Pacific Northwest during the 1997–99 Cool Seasons 

      Colle, Brian A.; Mass, Clifford F.; Westrick, Kenneth J. (American Meteorological Society, 2000)
      Precipitation forecasts from the Pennsylvania State University?National Center for Atmospheric Research fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5) are verified for the 1997?98 and 1998?99 cool seasons over the Pacific Northwest. ...

    • Evaluating the Use of a Nonlinear Two-Dimensional Model in Downslope Windstorm Forecasts 

      Nance, Louisa B.; Colman, Bradley R. (American Meteorological Society, 2000)
      Severe downslope windstorms are a mesoscale, primarily wintertime, phenomenon that affect regions in the lee of large mountain ranges. The resolution of current weather prediction models is too coarse to explicitly predict ...

    • The Melting Effect as a Factor in Precipitation-Type Forecasting 

      Kain, John S.; Goss, Stephen M.; Baldwin, Michael E. (American Meteorological Society, 2000)
      The process of atmospheric cooling due to melting precipitation is examined to evaluate its contribution to determining precipitation type. The ?melting effect? is typically of second-order importance compared to other ...

    • An Overview of Environmental Conditions and Forecast Implications of the 3 May 1999 Tornado Outbreak 

      Thompson, Richard L.; Edwards, Roger (American Meteorological Society, 2000)
      An overview of conditions associated with the Oklahoma?Kansas tornado outbreak of 3 May 1999 is presented, with emphasis on the evolution of environmental and supercellular characteristics most relevant to the prediction ...

    • Dynamical Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Errors. Part II: Midlatitude Circulation Influences 

      Carr, Lester E.; Elsberry, Russell L. (American Meteorological Society, 2000)
      All highly erroneous (>300 n mi or 555 km at 72 h) Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) and U.S. Navy version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model (GFDN) tropical cyclone track ...

    • Dynamical Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Errors. Part I: Tropical Region Error Sources 

      Carr, Lester E.; Elsberry, Russell L. (American Meteorological Society, 2000)
      All highly erroneous (>300 n mi or 555 km at 72 h) Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) and U.S. Navy version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model (GFDN) tropical cyclone track ...

    • The Impact of Step Orography on Flow in the Eta Model: Two Contrasting Examples 

      Gallus, William A. (American Meteorological Society, 2000)
      Simulations were performed using the Eta Model with its eta vertical coordinate and stepwise treatment of terrain, and with a substitution of the terrain-following sigma vertical coordinate to investigate the impact of ...

    • Self-Adapting Analog Ensemble Predictions of Tropical Cyclone Tracks 

      Sievers, Oliver; Fraedrich, Klaus; Raible, Christoph C. (American Meteorological Society, 2000)
      An analog model is used to predict the tropical cyclone tracks in the Atlantic and east Pacific basins. The model is self-adapting in its search of ensembles of optimal historic analogs by creating a norm that minimizes ...

    • A Case Study of the Sensitivity of the Eta Data Assimilation System 

      Zapotocny, Tom H.; Nieman, Steven J.; Menzel, W. Paul; Nelson, James P.; Jung, James A.; Rogers, Eric; Parrish, David F.; DiMego, Geoffrey J.; Baldwin, Michael; Schmit, Timothy J. (American Meteorological Society, 2000)
      A case study is utilized to determine the sensitivity of the Eta Data Assimilation System (EDAS) to all operational observational data types used within it. The work described in this paper should be of interest to Eta ...

    • The Correspondence Ratio in Forecast Evaluation 

      Stensrud, David J.; Wandishin, Matthew S. (American Meteorological Society, 2000)
      The correspondence ratio is developed to evaluate output from an ensemble of numerical weather prediction models. This measure is a simple extension of the threat score, or critical success index, to more than two fields ...

    • A Method to Determine Precipitation Types 

      Bourgouin, Pierre (American Meteorological Society, 2000)
      A method to diagnose surface precipitation types is suggested. Most cases of freezing rain and ice pellets occur with a layer warmer than 0°C extending above a surface-based layer of air colder than 0°C. The procedure uses ...

    • Model Consensus 

      Fritsch, J. M.; Hilliker, J.; Ross, J.; Vislocky, R. L. (American Meteorological Society, 2000)
      Consensus forecasts from the control runs of several operational numerical models are compared to 1) the control-run forecasts of the individual models that compose the consensus and to 2) other consensus forecasts generated ...

    • Decomposition of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score for Ensemble Prediction Systems 

      Hersbach, Hans (American Meteorological Society, 2000)
      Some time ago, the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) was proposed as a new verification tool for (probabilistic) forecast systems. Its focus is on the entire permissible range of a certain (weather) parameter. The ...

    • The Australian Boxing Day Storm of 1998—Synoptic Description and Numerical Simulations 

      Buckley, B. W.; Leslie, L. M. (American Meteorological Society, 2000)
      An intense low pressure system formed in the Bass Strait region of southeastern Australia during the Boxing Day long weekend of 25?28 December 1998. The explosive development of this low commenced on 26 December (Boxing ...

    • Experimental GOES Sounder Products for the Assessment of Downburst Potential 

      Ellrod, Gary P.; Nelson, James P.; Witiw, Michael R.; Bottos, Lynda; Roeder, William P. (American Meteorological Society, 2000)
      Several experimental products derived from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Sounder retrievals (vertical profiles of temperature and moisture) have been developed to assist weather forecasters in ...

    • Sensitivity of Forecast Rainfall in a Texas Convective System to Soil Moisture and Convective Parameterization 

      Gallus, William A.; Segal, Moti (American Meteorological Society, 2000)
      The impact of soil moisture on the forecast of a small-scale convective system, and sensitivity of results to the convective parameterization used, are investigated through Eta Model simulations (run in an operational-like ...

    • Regional and Local Influences on Freezing Drizzle, Freezing Rain,and Ice Pellet Events 

      Bernstein, Ben C. (American Meteorological Society, 2000)
      Regional and local influences on frequency and type of freezing precipitation (freezing drizzle, freezing rain, and ice pellets) are investigated via in-depth climatologies of six continental United States (CONUS) sounding ...

    • An Example of Temperature Structure Differences in Two Cyclone Systems Derived from the Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit 

      Knaff, John A.; Zehr, Raymond M.; Goldberg, Mitchell D.; Kidder, Stanley Q. (American Meteorological Society, 2000)
      The Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) has better horizontal resolution and vertical temperature sounding abilities than its predecessor, the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU). Those improved capabilities are demonstrated ...

    • Conditional Probabilities of Significant Tornadoes from RUC-2 Forecasts 

      Hamill, Thomas M.; Church, Andrew T. (American Meteorological Society, 2000)
      Several previous studies have established statistical relationships between the severity of convection and environmental conditions determined from rawinsonde observations. Here, the authors seek 1) to determine whether ...

    • Improving RUC-1 Wind Estimates by Incorporating Near-Real-Time Aircraft Reports 

      Cole, Rodney E.; Green, Steve M.; Jardin, Matt R. (American Meteorological Society, 2000)
      A verification study of wind accuracy is presented for wind nowcasts generated by augmenting Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) wind forecasts with near-real-time aircraft reports using the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) ...