Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1401-1420 of 3043
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Some Aspects of Dense Fog in the Midwestern United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)To better understand dense fog events in the midwestern United States, a fog climatology was developed that examines the surface weather conditions at dense fog onset and during dense fog events, in relationship to fog ... -
An Alert Classification System for Monitoring and Assessing the ENSO Cycle
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)An alert classification system for the ENSO cycle is introduced. The system includes watches, advisories, and a five-class intensity scale for warm and cold phases of the ENSO cycle. A watch is issued when conditions are ... -
Operational Evaluation of a Selective Consensus in the Western North Pacific Basin
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)The Systematic Approach Forecast Aid (SAFA) has been in use at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center since the 2000 western North Pacific season. SAFA is a system designed for determination of erroneous 72-h track forecasts ... -
Uncertainty and Inference for Verification Measures
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)When a forecast is assessed, a single value for a verification measure is often quoted. This is of limited use, as it needs to be complemented by some idea of the uncertainty associated with the value. If this uncertainty ... -
An Experiment to Measure the Value of Statistical Probability Forecasts for Airports
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)The economic value of weather forecasts for airports for commercial aviation is investigated by introducing financial data into the decision-making process for fuel carriage by aircraft. Using specific operating costs for ... -
Application of the NCEP Ensemble Prediction System to Medium-Range Forecasting in South Africa: New Products, Benefits, and Challenges
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Ensemble Forecasting System (EFS) is used operationally in South Africa for medium-range forecasts up to 14 days ahead. The use of model-generated probability forecasts ... -
Assessment of Aircraft Icing Potential and Maximum Icing Altitude from Geostationary Meteorological Satellite Data
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)A satellite product that displays regions of aircraft icing potential, along with corresponding cloud-top heights, has been developed using data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) imager and ... -
Influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on Winter Precipitation and Drought during Years of Neutral ENSO in the Western United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)The influence of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on important hydroclimatic variables during years of neutral ENSO for 84 climate divisions in the western United States is analyzed from 1925 to 1998. When the 34 ... -
A Synoptic Climatology and Composite Analysis of the Alberta Clipper
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)Surface and upper-air analyses from the ECMWF Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) dataset are used to construct a climatology of 177 Alberta clippers over 15 boreal cold seasons (October?March) from 1986/87 to 2000/01. ... -
Antecedent Upstream Air Trajectories Associated with Northwest Flow Snowfall in the Southern Appalachians
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)Northwest flow snow (NWFS) events are common occurrences at higher elevations and on windward slopes in the southern Appalachians. Low temperatures and considerable blowing and drifting of snow, coupled with significant ... -
Application of Artificial Neural Network Forecasts to Predict Fog at Canberra International Airport
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)The occurrence of fog can significantly impact air transport operations, and plays an important role in aviation safety. The economic value of aviation forecasts for Sydney Airport alone in 1993 was estimated at $6.8 million ... -
Linear and Nonlinear Statistical Downscaling for Rainfall Forecasting over Southeastern Brazil
(American Meteorological Society, 2006)In this work linear and nonlinear downscaling are developed to establish empirical relationships between the synoptic-scale circulation and observed rainfall over southeastern Brazil. The methodology uses outputs from the ... -
Evaluation of Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Determined from Eta and AVN Forecasted Amounts
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)This note examines the connection between the probability of precipitation and forecasted amounts from the NCEP Eta (now known as the North American Mesoscale model) and Aviation (AVN; now known as the Global Forecast ... -
Facing the Challenges of the International Airways Volcano Watch: The 2004/05 Eruptions of Manam, Papua New Guinea
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)Devastating eruptions occurred at Manam, Papua New Guinea, from October 2004 to January 2005. An unprecedented set of pilot reports were obtained; ground-, air-, and satellite-observed eruption heights differed greatly. ... -
Evaluation of a Mesoscale Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System over the Northeast United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)A short-range ensemble forecast system was constructed over the northeast United States down to 12-km grid spacing using 18 members from the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University?National Center for Atmospheric ... -
Mesoscale Aspects of the Rapid Intensification of a Tornadic Convective Line across Central Florida: 22–23 February 1998
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)The 22?23 February 1998 central Florida tornado outbreak was one of the deadliest and costliest in Florida?s history; a number of long-track tornadoes moved across the Florida peninsula after 0000 UTC 23 February 1998. In ... -
The Advanced Dvorak Technique: Continued Development of an Objective Scheme to Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using Geostationary Infrared Satellite Imagery
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)Tropical cyclones are becoming an increasing menace to society as populations grow in coastal regions. Forecasting the intensity of these often-temperamental weather systems can be a real challenge, especially if the true ... -
Evaluation of GFDL and Simple Statistical Model Rainfall Forecasts for U.S. Landfalling Tropical Storms
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)To date, little objective verification has been performed for rainfall predictions from numerical forecasts of landfalling tropical cyclones. Until 2001, digital output from the operational version of the Geophysical Fluid ... -
Reliable Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)A simple binning technique is developed to produce reliable 3-h probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) multimodel short-range ensemble ... -
Foehn Winds That Produced Large Temperature Differences near the Southern Appalachian Mountains
(American Meteorological Society, 2007)A 30-yr (1971?2000) study was conducted to 1) determine the typical characteristics and synoptic conditions of foehn wind events that produced large temperature differences near the southern Appalachian Mountains and 2) ...