Strategic Decision Support for Resolving Conflict over Water Sharing among Countries along the Syr Darya River in the Aral Sea Basin

Abstract

The graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR), along with its associated decision support system GMCR II, are employed for systematically studying the strategic aspects of conflict existing among countries in the Aral Sea Basin of Central Asia. Competition for water is increasing in the central Asian countries in the Aral Sea Basin since they became independent in 1991. Disputes have developed between the three downstream countries, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, and the two upstream countries, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, in the basin in sharing water in its two main rivers, Syr Darya and Amu Darya. The downstream countries are heavy consumers of water for growing cotton while the upstream countries want to use more water for electricity generation and farming. Accordingly, GMCR II is utilized as a formal mechanism for better understanding the complex conflict existing at present among countries along the Syr Darya and for providing insights as to how these countries may interact with one another in attempting to reach a resolution acceptable to all. In particular, strictly following the present water allocation agreement by all parties is found to be the most preferred resolution for both the upstream and downstream countries.