Consideration of Variability and Uncertainty in Phosphorus Total Maximum Daily Loads for Lakes

Abstract

A simplified framework for considering variability and uncertainty in developing lake phosphorus total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) is demonstrated. Explicit consideration of these factors can increase the probability that TMDL implementation will meet a defined water quality goal at an acceptable frequency. Although a lake goal is typically expressed as a seasonal or yearly average phosphorus concentration, effects of temporal variations can be captured by correlating average phosphorus concentrations with the frequency of algal blooms (defined by extreme values of chlorophyll