Exploring Trampling and Crushing in a Crowd

Abstract

Using published field data on accidents in crowds involving either the trampling or crushing of pedestrians, a theory has been developed to model similar dangerous situations. Whether a particular situation is fatal is statistical, but general rules may be established. In cases involving trampling, which occurs when pedestrians are moving, it was found that the density of pedestrians is an important isotropic quantity that appears to determine the probability of a fatal accident. Previous studies have also identified the density of a crowd as determining the probability of crushing within a stationary crowd, although different densities are involved in the initiation of these two types of accidents. In a moving crowd, trampling will occur before crushing, but trampling does not occur in a static crowd. The cross-sectional size of pedestrians within the crowd is important in determining whether a particular density is dangerous in both types of accidents. Consequently, comparisons of accidents involving different groups of pedestrians, possibly in different countries, need to be standardized for the characteristics of the group.