Modeling the Large Scale Disruptions of an Airline Network

Abstract

When the large-scale disruptions of airline networks occur, they can cause significant deterioration of the planned schedule. Such deterioration shows up in the form of long delays, rerouting and/or cancellation of flights. This paper presents a model for assessment of the economic consequences of large-scale disruptions of an airline single hub-and-spoke network. These consequences are expressed by the cost of delayed and cancelled complexes of flights. The model is based on the theory of queuing systems with the airline hub airport as a server and the complexes of flights as customers. The difference between the service time of the affected and planned complexes determine their delays caused by a given disruptive event. The cost of delays and revenues of the affected flights, and global airline mitigating strategies are used to determine the total airline cost of delayed and cancelled complexes. The model is applied to the disrupted hub-and-spoke network of a large European airline. The purpose is to illustrate the model’s planning nature, complexity of the problem, influence of the relevant factors, and the magnitude of the economic consequences.