Transferabilities of Urban Travel Demand Models

Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of recent investigations on the transferability of passenger travel demand models under different empirical and policy conditions. The results of this study generally indicate that with proper selection of urban areas the transferability of demand models is possible under similar empirical and policy conditions. Specific findings of this study include: (1) “Universal” models accounted only for partial urban character and thus met only partial success; (2) the change of transportation policy variable at a small scale has no significant impact on the model transferability; (3) the change in base conditions of socio‐economic variables has profound influence on model transferability; (4) demand models are temporally stable over a period equal to or less than 12 years; and (5) the model transferability can be ranked in order of household models, zonal average models and zonal models. It is hoped that these study findings would make a significant contribution to travel demand estimation, especially when a quick‐response technique is required for transportation policy‐oriented decision‐making.