Modeling Uncertainty in an Object-Oriented Reservoir Operations Model

Abstract

In recent years, reservoir management considerations have expanded to include environmental and recreational objectives, many of which are often difficult to quantify. With a larger set of operational objectives comes the need to identify tradeoffs and uncertainties among the various objectives. Uncertainty modeling may contribute to better reservoir management by identifying and quantifying the sources of significant uncertainty in predicting reservoir and river conditions that affect environmental habitats and recreational conditions. We implement a first-order, second-moment algorithm in