Use of Fuzzy Logic for Predicting Design Cost Overruns on Building Projects

Abstract

This paper describes a model for use in predicting potential cost overruns on engineering design projects. The output of the model is useful in assessing the amount of possible risk on a project and the likelihood of making a profit on the job. The model is intended for use by engineering consultants, i.e., structural, mechanical, and electrical engineers, in the building design industry. This research uses fuzzy logic to model the relationships between the characteristics of a project and the potential risk events that may occur, and the associated cost overruns caused by combinations of the project characteristics and risk events. This paper discusses the topic of scope creep and scope definition, which are significant causes of cost overruns on design projects; identifies the project characteristics and risk events used in the model; explains the structure of the model and the use of fuzzy logic; and provides recommendations for future research.