Risk Analysis for Seismic Design of Tailings Dams

Abstract

Probabilistic seismic risk analysis is a promising method for evaluating design options and establishing seismic design parameters. However, there have been few examples in the literature to guide practitioners in its use. This paper demonstrates the value of risk analysis for mine tailings dams and provides a case‐history application for a seismically active portion of Nevada. Risk analysis provided the basis for selecting among design options having varying liquefaction resistance, and for establishing input parameters for dynamic analysis. Ranges are presented for the quantity and cleanup cost of tailings released in seismic failures to aid in determining expected failure consequences. It is shown that for many tailings dams, accepted lifetime failure probabilities of a few percent may provide a reasonable basis for probabilistic determination of seismic design criteria.