Inclusion of Model Errors in Reliability-Based Optimization

Abstract

This paper proposes a methodology to estimate errors in computational models and to include them in reliability-based design optimization (RBDO). Various sources of uncertainties, errors, and approximations in model form selection and numerical solution are considered. The solution approximation error is quantified based on the model itself, using the Richardson extrapolation method. The model form error is quantified based on the comparison of model prediction with physical observations using an interpolated resampling approach. The error in reliability analysis is also quantified and included in the RBDO formulation. The proposed methods are illustrated through numerical examples.