Statistical Extrapolation of Extreme Value Data Based on the Peaks Over Threshold Method

Abstract

This paper discusses the use of the peaks over threshold method for estimating long return period design values of environmental loads. Attention is focused on the results concerning the type of asymptotic extreme value distribution for use in the extrapolation to required design values obtained by such methods, which in many cases seem to indicate that the Weibull distribution for maxima is the appropriate one. It will be shown by a closer scrutiny of the underlying estimation process that very often such a conclusion cannot in fact be substantiated.