Abstract: The frequency of persistent atmospheric blocking events in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is compared with the blocking frequency produced by a simple first-order Markov model designed to predict the time evolution ...

Abstract: oupled climate models predict density-driven weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) under greenhouse gas forcing, with considerable spread in the response between models. There is also a large ...