Abstract: Consensus forecasts are computed by averaging model output statistics (MOS) forecasts based on the limited-area fine-mesh (LFM) model and the nested grid model (NGM) for the three-year period 1990?92. The test consists of ...

Abstract: Examples of current surface-analysis problems and opportunities are presented. A prototype analysis procedure that simulates some of the new automated analysis capabilities at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction ...

Abstract: The skill of probabilistic Model Output Statistics forecasts generated from Generalized Additive Models (GAM) is compared to that of traditional multiple linear regression techniques. Unlike linear regression, where each ...

Abstract: A method of improving the accuracy of model output statistics (MOS) probability of precipitation (POP) forecasts was investigated. The method uses a perfect prog (PP) forecast as a potential predictor in a MOS equation. ...

Abstract: Several methods of generating very short term (0?6 h) probabilistic forecasts of ceiling and visibility are investigated: 1) an observations-based (OBS-based) system in which potential predictors consist of weather ...

Abstract: A prototype advanced model output statistics (MOS) forecast system that was entered in the 1996?97 National Collegiate Weather Forecast Contest is described and its performance compared to that of widely available objective ...