Abstract: This paper concerns the problem of predicting the variance of a large ensemble of predictions evolving from an ensemble of slightly incorrect initial states, randomly distributed around a ?most probable? initial state. ...

Abstract: No abstract available.

Abstract: This is a study of the statistical behavior of a very low order ?general circulation model,? consisting of a single finite-amplitude baroclinic wave interacting with a mean zonal shear flow, maintained against dissipation ...

Abstract: A method is proposed whereby incorrect analyses at two successive times may be optimally adjusted to maintain dynamical consistency with a given prediction model. It is shown that, in the ensemble average, the mean-square ...

Abstract: This note deals with a new class of solutions of the nondivergent barotropic vorticity equation. In general, these solutions require a complete representation in spherical harmonics and are therefore good comparison solutions ...

Abstract: This paper is concerned with calculating the nonlinear transfer and partition of energy in a triad of interacting modes of a two-dimensional viscous flow, driven by random sources and sinks of vorticity. Our approach to ...

Abstract: No abstract available.

Abstract: We propose here a method of ?stochastic-dynamic? prediction that is computationally more efficient than integration of the full set of ?second-moment? equations. This gain is achieved by omitting covariances between modes ...

Abstract: Starting with the vorticity equation for barotropic flow, we derive a system of stochastic differential equations that determines the time-evolution of the local variance of vorticity error originating in a large ensemble ...

Abstract: This paper deals with a statistical-mechanical approach to the problem of calculating the statistics of randomly forced triads of modes in the two-dimensional flow of a viscous fluid. We first construct the probability ...