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RISBimodal Behavior of the Kuroshio and the Gulf Stream
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: For a long time, observations have indicated that the Kuroshio in the North Pacific Ocean displays bimodal meandering behavior off the southern coast of Japan. For the Gulf Stream in the North Atlantic Ocean, weakly and ...
Physics of the 9-Month Variability in the Gulf Stream Region: Combining Data and Dynamical Systems Analyses
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Using nonseasonal altimeter data and SST observations of the North Atlantic, and more specifically the Gulf Stream region, dominant patterns of variability are determined using multivariate time series analyses. A statistically ...
A Comparison between Raw Ensemble Output, (Modified) Bayesian Model Averaging, and Extended Logistic Regression Using ECMWF Ensemble Precipitation Reforecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Using a 20-yr ECMWF ensemble reforecast dataset of total precipitation and a 20-yr dataset of a dense precipitation observation network in the Netherlands, a comparison is made between the raw ensemble output, Bayesian ...
Probabilistic Forecasting of (Severe) Thunderstorms in the Netherlands Using Model Output Statistics
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The derivation and verification of logistic regression equations for the (conditional) probability of (severe) thunderstorms in the warm half-year (from mid-April to mid-October) in the Netherlands is described. For 12 ...
Using MSG-SEVIRI Cloud Physical Properties and Weather Radar Observations for the Detection of Cb/TCu Clouds
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: new automated daytime cumulonimbus/towering cumulus (Cb/TCu) cloud detection method for the months of May?September is presented that combines information on cloud physical properties retrieved from the Spinning Enhanced ...
Probabilistic Forecasts of (Severe) Thunderstorms for the Purpose of Issuing a Weather Alarm in the Netherlands
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The development and verification of a new model output statistics (MOS) system is described; this system is intended to help forecasters decide whether a weather alarm for severe thunderstorms, based on high total lightning ...
A Stratified Sampling Approach for Improved Sampling from a Calibrated Ensemble Forecast Distribution
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: efore using the Schaake shuffle or empirical copula coupling (ECC) to reconstruct the dependence structure for postprocessed ensemble meteorological forecasts, a necessary step is to sample discrete samples from each ...