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RISPredictability of the Performance of an Ensemble Forecast System: Predictability of the Space of Uncertainties
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The performance of an ensemble prediction system is inherently flow dependent. This paper investigates the flow dependence of the ensemble performance with the help of linear diagnostics applied to the ensemble perturbations ...
Heteroscedastic Ensemble Postprocessing
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: nsemble variances provide a prediction of the flow-dependent error variance of the ensemble mean or, possibly, a high-resolution forecast. However, small ensemble size, unaccounted for model error, and imperfections in ...
Hidden Error Variance Theory. Part I: Exposition and Analytic Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: conundrum of predictability research is that while the prediction of flow-dependent error distributions is one of its main foci, chaos fundamentally hides flow-dependent forecast error distributions from empirical observation. ...
Forecast Dropouts in the NAVGEM Model: Characterization with Respect to Other Models, Large-Scale Indices, and Ensemble Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A forecast “bust” or “dropout” can be defined as an intermittent but significant loss of model forecast performance. Deterministic forecast dropouts are typically defined in terms of the 500-hPa geopotential height (Φ
Investigating the Use of Ensemble Variance to Predict Observation Error of Representation
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: ata assimilation schemes combine observational data with a short-term model forecast to produce an analysis. However, many characteristics of the atmospheric states described by the observations and the model differ. ...
Using Forecast Temporal Variability to Evaluate Model Behavior
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he statistics of model temporal variability ought to be the same as those of the filtered version of reality that the model is designed to represent. Here, simple diagnostics are introduced to quantify temporal variability ...
Hidden Error Variance Theory. Part II: An Instrument That Reveals Hidden Error Variance Distributions from Ensemble Forecasts and Observations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: n Part I of this study, a model of the distribution of true error variances given an ensemble variance is shown to be defined by six parameters that also determine the optimal weights for the static and flow-dependent parts ...
Challenges for Inline Observation Error Estimation in the Presence of Misspecified Background Uncertainty
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Weather and Climate Variability May Be Poor Proxies for Climate Change in Farmer Risk Perceptions
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractDespite long-standing assertions that climate change creates new risk management challenges, the climate change adaptation literature persists in assuming, both implicitly and explicitly, that weather and climate ...
Unit Cell Synthesis for Design of Materials With Targeted Nonlinear Deformation Response
Publisher: The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)
Abstract: A systematic unit cell synthesis approach is presented for designing metamaterials from a unit cell level, which are made out of linearly elastic constitutive materials to achieve tunable nonlinear deformation characteristics. ...