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RISObjective Inference for Climate Parameters: Bayesian, Transformation-of-Variables, and Profile Likelihood Approaches
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: nsight is provided into the use of objective-Bayesian methods for estimating climate sensitivity by considering their relationship to transformations of variables in the context of a simple case considered in a previous ...
An Objective Bayesian Improved Approach for Applying Optimal Fingerprint Techniques to Estimate Climate Sensitivity
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: detailed reanalysis is presented of a ?Bayesian? climate parameter study (as exemplified by Forest et al.) that estimates climate sensitivity (ECS) jointly with effective ocean diffusivity and aerosol forcing, using optimal ...
Negligible unforced historical pattern effect on climate feedback strength found in HadISST-based AMIP simulations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Recently it has been suggested that natural variability in sea surface temperature (SST) patterns over the historical period causes a low bias in estimates of climate sensitivity based on instrumental records, in addition ...
The Impact of Recent Forcing and Ocean Heat Uptake Data on Estimates of Climate Sensitivity
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractEnergy budget estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) are derived based on the best estimates and uncertainty ranges for forcing provided in the IPCC Fifth Assessment ...
Improved Methods for PCA-Based Reconstructions: Case Study Using the Steig et al. (2009) Antarctic Temperature Reconstruction
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: detailed analysis is presented of a recently published Antarctic temperature reconstruction that combines satellite and ground information using a regularized expectation?maximization algorithm. Though the general ...