Abstract: The theoretical skill of Monte Carlo approximations to the stochastic dynamic forecasting technique proposed by Epstein is examined by means of an extension of earlier atmospheric predictability studies that used the ...

Abstract: The first iteration of the recently developed nonlinear normal mode initialization procedure for primitive equation models leads to quasi-rotational dynamical and diagnostic equations agreeing with those of quasi-geostrephic ...

Abstract: Climate change studies with general circulation models require the estimation of climatic means by calculation of finite-time averages. A simple stochastic model is used to estimate the standard error of such an estimation ...

Abstract: The fluctuation-dissipation theorem of statistical mechanics, proved in this note for a system with two quadratic integrals of motion such as that of two-dimensional or geostrophic turbulence, relates, the mean response ...

Abstract: Recent observations indicate that the planetary-scale motions of the atmosphere obey some of the laws of two-dimensional turbulence. The eddy-damped Markovian approximation to two-dimensional turbulence is applied to these ...

Abstract: The test-field model of turbulence is used to compute the growth of prediction error for inertial-range turbulence in both three and two dimensions. It is found that initial uncertainty in high wavenumbers spreads through ...