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Detection Probability of Trends in Rare Events: Theory and Application to Heavy Precipitation in the Alpine Region
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A statistical framework is presented for the assessment of climatological trends in the frequency of rare and extreme weather events. The methodology applies to long-term records of event counts and is based on the stochastic ...
Data Transformation and Uncertainty in Geostatistical Combination of Radar and Rain Gauges
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: eostatistics provides a popular framework for deriving high-resolution quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) by combining radar and rain gauge data. However, the skewed and heteroscedastic nature of precipitation is ...
Reconstruction of Mesoscale Precipitation Fields from Sparse Observations in Complex Terrain
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The feasibility of a statistical reconstruction of mesoscale precipitation fields over complex topography from a sparse rain gauge network is examined. Reconstructions of gridded monthly precipitation for the European Alps ...
SAL—A Novel Quality Measure for the Verification of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A novel object-based quality measure, which contains three distinct components that consider aspects of the structure (S), amplitude (A), and location (L) of the precipitation field in a prespecified domain (e.g., a river ...
Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area ...
A New Framework for Identifying and Investigating Seasonal Climate Extremes
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
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