Efficient Simulation Techniques for Reliability Analysis of Flexible Pavements Using the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide

Abstract

Many sources of uncertainty are inherent in pavement design. These uncertainties must be incorporated systematically in a reliability analysis to compute their combined effects on the probability of failure of a given pavement structure. Monte Carlo simulation has been the technique of choice in the past to simulate the effects of uncertainties in input parameters on pavement distress and the resultant reliability analyses. The impractical computational time associated with a Monte Carlo scheme, however, has prompted the deferral of the implementation of similar techniques in the current