Improving Planning Reliability and Project Performance Using the Reliable Commitment Model

Abstract

Commitment planning reliability at an operational level is a key factor for improving project performance. In the last 15 years, the Last Planner System, a production planning and control system based on lean production principles, has improved commitment planning reliability in the construction industry. However, many construction decision makers continue to rely on their experience and intuition when planning their commitments, which hinders their reliability. The reliable commitment model (RCM) is proposed to improve commitment planning reliability at the operational level by using statistical models. RCM is an operational decision-making tool based on lean principles that supports short-term forecasting commitment planning using common-site information such as workers, buffers, and plans. RCM was tested in several case studies, demonstrating its production forecasting capabilities and its ability to help increase commitment planning reliability and improve project performance. RCM also supports workload and labor capacity matching decisions. RCM has the potential of becoming a useful production decision-making tool.