The Added Value of Surface Data to Radar-Derived Rainfall-Rate Estimation Using an Artificial Neural Network

Abstract

Radar measurements are useful for determining rainfall rates because of their ability to cover large areas. Unfortunately, estimating rainfall rates from radar reflectivity data alone is prone to errors resulting from variations in drop size distributions, precipitation types, and other physics that cannot be represented in a simple, one-dimensional Z?R relationship. However, improving estimates is possible by utilizing additional inputs, thereby increasing the dimensionality of the model. The main purpose of this study is to determine the value of surface observations for improving rainfall-rate estimation. This work carefully designed an artificial neural network to fit a model that would relate radar reflectivity, surface temperature, humidity, pressure, and wind to observed rainfall rates. Observations taken over 13 years from the Oklahoma Mesonet and the KTLX WSR-88D radar near Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, were used for the training dataset. While the artificial neural network underestimated rainfall rates for higher reflectivities, it did have an overall better performance than the best-fit Z?R relation. Most importantly, it is shown that the surface data contributed significant value to an unaugmented radar-based rainfall-rate estimation model.